Now it appears that with the latest G17 release on Industrial Production, the Federal Reserve is making the same assumption. They make note of this referring to several charts stating:"The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP.”They are referring to the technical definition of contractions (recessions) as starting “at the peak of a business cycle and end at the trough (as defined by the NBER).
The Fed's charts are no longer showing the shaded regions that indicate recession (re-created below sans shading).
Too early?
Source: Federal Reserve
Depends...as you well know. All of the indicators have turned up. But the critical one is Employment - which has turned up as much any other but, like them all is still very negative on a YoY basis.
ReplyDeleteNBER looks at GDP, Employment and Industrial Production among other things.