Friday, July 31, 2009

Q2 GDP Closer to -5.8% Accounting for Revisions

Update:

My initial post stated that the decline was closer to 2.3% (rather than the announced 1%) as there were massive revisions to old GDP prints. Looking at GDP data below, old figures were revised down 1.3% on a cumulative basis from Q2 2007 through last quarter, but I forgot to turn the quarter over quarter change into a 12-month figure. Thus, the change from unrevised Q1 to Q2 is not a 2.3% annualized decline, but more like a 5.8% annualized decline.



Yikes...

Source: BEA
at

3 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 2, 2009 at 10:12 AM

    are you going to run a (fully revised) comparison of GDP on each of an income, expenditure and output basis? i think this might shock.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Larry ArndtAugust 2, 2009 at 11:25 AM

    i would also like to see a little more in depth on this. thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. JakeAugust 2, 2009 at 1:29 PM

    TraderLars... in a nutshell...

    The QoQ change in GDP (annualized) that would get the blue line (pre-revision) line to match the cumulative Q2 09 red line (post revision) is -5.8%

    ReplyDelete