Friday, February 27, 2009

Historical GDP: "It Was Nice Knowing You U.S. Consumer" Edition

A snapshot at fourth quarter GDP prints going back to 1998. Even in the last recession, consumption added to GDP... not this time. The only real positive... a decline in imports (a positive for net exports), due to you guessed it... the possible death of the U.S. consumer.



Source: BEA
at

3 comments:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 27, 2009 at 12:17 PM

    Is the decline in imports a positive? Won't this translate into a decrease in Treasury purchases by China, Japan and the petro-countries, with a corresponding increase in yields. Obama's recent budget assumes a 10 yr note around 2.9%. How realistic is that?

    ReplyDelete
  2. pwm76February 27, 2009 at 9:16 PM

    Jake, I can't find your email, so am using the comments.

    Here are some stats on credit growth from Doug Noland that you may find informative. Scroll down to the bottom where the commentary is:

    http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10195

    ReplyDelete
  3. JakeFebruary 28, 2009 at 10:05 AM

    thanks paul- you can email me at econompicdata@gmail.com though it is typically easier to reach me on the comments board.

    ReplyDelete