Monday, December 14, 2015

Tweeting High Yield: A Round Trip in Investor Sentiment

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With high yield all the rage these days, I thought it might be worthwhile aggregating tweets / posts going back to the beginning of this cre...
Wednesday, December 9, 2015

It's Generally Smart to Avoid Credit Risk

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I've previously outlined that high yield credit risk  is typically less ideal than simply gaining credit exposure through stocks and rat...
Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The Case for an Allocation to Dollar Based EM Debt

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While the underperformance of high yield bonds since my post The Case Against High Yield has certainly made high yield bonds more attractiv...
Monday, November 23, 2015

Valuations Do Matter (Even Over Shorter Time Frames) / Momentum Driven Valuation Timing

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I often read that valuations don't matter over the short-term (a case often cited against market timing). Over very short periods (hour...
Tuesday, November 17, 2015

The Mean Reversion Case For (and Against) Strong Future Returns

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Bull thesis: 15-year S&P annualized returns ending 9/30/15 came in at just under 4%. The average forward return since 1915 when returns...
Monday, November 9, 2015

Making Time (Even More of) an Investor's Best Friend

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Ben Carlson of A Wealth of Common Sense blog (and author of a great book by the same name ), had a recent post Playing the Probabilities  o...
Thursday, November 5, 2015

GMO Flows Turn Negative - An Ominous Sign for Risk Taking

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As unnecessary as it may seem, contrarian investment managers need to be even more consultative with their clients than managers more aligne...
Wednesday, October 28, 2015

What Exactly Does the VIX Tell Us?

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Most investors know of the VIX Index, but not as many understand what information the VIX provides an investor. Here is my attempt to provid...
Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Utilizing the Value of Value to Make Value / Growth Tilts

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Back in August I outlined why I thought the plain-vanilla value premium had been compressed to the point growth had and was likely to contin...
Monday, October 19, 2015

The Relationship Between High Yields and High Yield / Stock Performance

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I've previously posted my broader thoughts on high yield (that there is typically limited to no benefit vs. a stock / bond allocation),...
Friday, October 2, 2015

Using "Normal" Drawdowns as a Timing Signal

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The below analysis was purely an accident. I was actually looking into periods the U.S. stock market "suffered" a 10% drawdown for...
Monday, September 28, 2015

Using the VIX Futures Term Structure to Reduce Equity Exposure

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The WSJ blog had a recent article The VIX Market Suggests It’s Not Yet Time to Buy the Dips  outlining: Typically, longer-dated VIX future...
Monday, September 21, 2015

Momentum Applied to Mutual Funds

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Back in May, I posted A Guide to Creating Your Own Hedge Fund  outlining how the application of momentum to the two worst performing funds  ...
Wednesday, September 9, 2015

The Case for Put Writing / Further Improving PutWrite Performance

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What is Put Writing? The CBOE has some great resources on what exactly put writing is here , but in a nutshell: The CBOE S&P 500® Pu...
Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Utilizing the Money Sucking $UVXY to Improve Risk-Adjusted Returns

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Horrific Performance An initial investment of more than $450,000 to the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ( UVXY ) at the open of ...
Monday, August 10, 2015

Death of (Plain Vanilla) Value - Long Live GARP

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Warren Buffett made news this morning, not just for making the largest acquisition of his career, but for making it at a relatively lofty 22...