EconomPic
Tuesday, March 31, 2015

The Disappearing Value Premium?

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Eugene Fama and Kenneth French released their seminal white paper ' The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns ' in June 1992 whic...
Friday, March 27, 2015

Your Bond Allocation Doesn't Matter as Much as You Think

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Quick... which of the three allocations A, B, or C is 60% S&P 500 Index / 40% Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index,  55% S&P 500 Index...
4 comments:
Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Fearful of Rising Rates? Stocks Have You Covered

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Josh Brown (i.e. The Reformed Broker ) has a nice piece questioning the merit of unconstrained bond funds. Embedded within that article was...
Monday, March 23, 2015

The Benefit of Slowing Down the Rebalancing Process

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One of the top Google “rebalance free lunch” results is an article quoting one of the brightest minds in finance, Clifford Asness, that I t...
1 comment:
Friday, August 3, 2012

Employment Survey's Diverge

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The Washington Post details: One is called the payroll survey. It asks mostly large companies and government agencies how many people they ...
Friday, July 27, 2012

GDP Expands 1.5% in Q2

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Bloomberg details: The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter as a softening job market prompted Americans to curb sp...
Thursday, July 19, 2012

Leading Economic Indicators Decline by Most Since Last September

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Bloomberg details: The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in June, a sign the U.S. economic expansion is slo...
Monday, July 9, 2012

Consumer Credit Jumps... a Good Thing?

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Bloomberg details: Consumer credit climbed more than forecast in May, led by the biggest jump in credit-card debt in almost five years that...
3 comments:
Friday, July 6, 2012

Gaming the System... Disability Edition

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In my post outlining the decline in employment (excluding teens), reader Mike pointed out another interesting phenomenon: One of the storie...
8 comments:

Employment (Excluding Teen Hires) Turns Negative

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Peter Boockvar provides details of the ugly job report: June Payrolls totaled 80,000, 20,000 less than expected and well below the ADP whis...
2 comments:
Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Breaking Down Volatility of the VIX

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I had never heard of the VVIX index (the volatility of the stock market's volatility "volatility of VIX ") until a week back...
Monday, July 2, 2012

Common Investor Errors...

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Early last week, Barry Ritholtz outlined what he believed were the top ten most common investor errors: Here is my short list: 1. High Fees...
Sunday, July 1, 2012

(Almost) All Assets up in the First Half

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Despite a volatile second quarter, risk assets (actually all assets with the exception of commodities) performed quite well in the first hal...
Wednesday, June 27, 2012

More on Corporate Profits

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Back in September of last year, I showed this chart outlining that corporate profits as a percent of GDP were approaching a three-standard ...
16 comments:
Thursday, June 21, 2012

Leading Indicators Up in May

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Marketwatch reports: The risk of a downturn in the second half of this year is relatively low, the Conference Board said Thursday as it rep...
1 comment:
Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Fed's Ugly Forecasts

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Over the past two months, the Fed's FOMC has: Reduced forecasts for growth in 2012, 2013, and 2014 Increased expectations of unemployme...
Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Financial vs. Capital Expenditures and Equities

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Yesterday, I made a bullish case for equities over the long run (especially when compared to bonds), today I will outline one of the reason...
4 comments:
Monday, June 18, 2012

Valuation Matters.... Equity vs Bonds Edition

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I've shown that valuation matters numerous times over the years when it comes to long-term equity returns (see here , here , and here f...
2 comments:
Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Retail Sales Sluggish

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BusinessWeek details: U.S. retail sales declined in April and May, pulled down by a sharp drop in gas prices. But even after excluding vola...
2 comments:
Monday, June 11, 2012

The End of the Middle Class

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The NY Times details: The recent economic crisis left the median American family in 2010 with no more wealth than in the early 1990s, erasi...
Thursday, June 7, 2012

Drop the Inflation Concerns

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As I've outlined before , wages tend to be the one of the better predictors of inflation (or deflation) out there as wages tend to be ve...
Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Dividend vs. Treasury Yields

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The dividend yield of the S&P 500 is above that of the ten year Treasury for the first time since the financial crisis. Before that we h...
Monday, June 4, 2012

Europe's Core / Periphery Imbalances Going Parabolic

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George Soros ' recent speech on what created the Euro bubble (and how it will need to play out) is making the rounds (although he delete...
1 comment:
Thursday, May 31, 2012

Put Selling as a Replacement For Stocks

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The higher that market implied volatility becomes, the more attractive put selling (as a replacement to being long stocks) becomes. The ch...

First Quarter GDP Revised Down to 1.9%

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Marketwatch details: The U.S. economy ran into a deeper soft patch in the first quarter than initially estimated, a government report showe...
Wednesday, May 30, 2012

What Happened to the Great Bond Sell-Off?

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It's amazing that it was only a bit more than two months ago that I wrote this post defending bonds against what was labeled the "...
1 comment:
Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Existing Home Sales Rise Across the Board

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While the overall level of existing home sales is still well below the bubble peak (4.62 million vs. 7+ million in mid-2005), the trend is p...
3 comments:
Thursday, May 17, 2012

Leading Economic Indicators Turn Negative

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Source: Conference Board
Tuesday, May 15, 2012

(U.S.) Relative Strength

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Despite the recent turmoil, unlike when I showed this chart last August (a time when the dollar was selling off and gold / commodities were...
1 comment:

Checking in on Inflation

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Marketwatch details: Inflationary pressures are fading, just as Federal Reserve officials expected. But don’t think that the decline in the...
Friday, May 11, 2012

EconomPics Recap

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I just came to the realization that I haven't had an EconomPic recap since March 9th, so here goes: Economic Data Trade Deficit Blow Out...
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