EconomPic
Friday, April 29, 2011

You Take the Good. You Take the Bad.

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A few data points from today... The Good This morning's Chicago PMI showed that delivery times have slowed. How is this possibly a good...
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CWP=D: Part I - Where Are The Jobs At?

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This is the first of a multi-part post on CWP=D (consumption without production equals debt) that will hopefully provide some clarity into h...
1 comment:
Thursday, April 28, 2011

Taking a Look at the "Transitory" Slowdown in Q1 GDP

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UPDATED: made a mistake in the earlier version (apparently I'm a bit rusty). Bernanke per his testimony (bold mine): Most of the fac...
Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Germany as the Poster Child for Fiscal Responsibility

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In yesterday's post on European Debt, I noticed: What is interesting (to me) is that debt levels in Germany are almost (or at least in ...
3 comments:
Tuesday, April 26, 2011

European Debt Once Again Front and Center

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Don't call me the Brett Favre of bloggers yet. I'm not officially back, but getting the itch and may post here and there (and like...
6 comments:
Friday, March 4, 2011

EconomPics Turns Three... EconomRIP Edition

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Well, its been a full year since EconomPic Turned Two , which means EconomPic turned 3 today (unreal). As many a reader may remember, I be...
41 comments:

Employment Picture Improved

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The economy added 250k jobs per the household survey and 192k per the establishment survey (222k private jobs) on a seasonally adjusted basi...
Thursday, March 3, 2011

Getting There

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I'm expecting an above consensus employment number tomorrow (i.e. 250+), as I think January's employment figure was artificially low...
3 comments:
Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Autos Over the Long Term

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4 years later we're making some real progress in the economy across the board, but showing how deep the dive was... auto sales are still...

Nothing is Sacred

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In a recession (the below is year over year change using January prints)... Source: Census
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Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace Since 1983

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ISM respondents are saying: "A continued weak dollar is increasing the cost of components purchased overseas. It is going to force us ...
Monday, February 28, 2011

More on Personal Consumption

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In response to my post Something Sustainable reader Tom Lindmark commented: As I understand the numbers, real PCE declined 0.1% and dispo...

Something Sustainable

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Over the past twelve months the rate of personal spending is up even though personal savings has risen (the obvious key is that personal wag...
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Friday, February 25, 2011

Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.8%

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Breakdown of the 0.4% shift below. Source: BEA
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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Durable Goods Orders Up... Not Exactly What it Seems

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Marketwatch with the details: Orders for U.S.-made durable goods rose 2.7% in January on stronger demand for civilian aircraft, the Commerc...
1 comment:
Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Growing Secular Volatility?

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The Big Picture notes that today's S&P 500 performance (-2.05%) was the worst in 6 months. More interesting is the frequency of -2%...
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Confidence Improves... Still Poor Jobs Outlook

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Source: Conference Board
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Home Prices Heading Down

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Source: S&P
Thursday, February 17, 2011

Case Shiller Price Index

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Haven't posted this in a while... As I've previously detailed , CPI may not reflect actual price levels for an individual who: does ...
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Leading Indicators Up Slightly in January

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Marketwatch details: The economy's expansion is expected to continue in coming months, though current conditions, which are slowly impr...
Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Producer Prices Continue to Rise... Feeding into Core

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Bloomberg details: Wholesale costs in the U.S. increased for a seventh consecutive month in January, led by higher prices for fuel. The pro...
Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Deficit Financing

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The AP details: Not since World War II has the federal budget deficit made up such a big chunk of the U.S. economy. And within two or three...

Retail Sales Up... Inflation Edition

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Marketwatch details: The biggest increase in sales took place at gas stations, grocery and liquor stores, auto retailers and online and cat...
Monday, February 14, 2011

Natural Rate of Unemployment

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Bloomberg details: The new “normal” unemployment rate may now be 6.7 percent, rising as much as 1.7 percentage points from 5 percent before...
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Budget Still Out of Control

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You can argue that the dialogue around cutting the budget going forward is a good start, but increasing the deficit to $1.6 billion from an ...
3 comments:
Sunday, February 13, 2011

Japan's Lost Decade(s)

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BusinessWeek details the latest: Japan’s gross domestic product fell less than estimated in the fourth quarter in a pullback that may prove...
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Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Inflection Point?

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Source: Yahoo
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Monday, February 7, 2011

Has Re-Leveraging Begun?

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Non-revolving credit is now at new all-time highs and the revolving cliff dive has hit a bottom (i.e. it is turning up... for now). Source: ...
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On the Prospects of G

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The chart below shows the annual change in government spending and investment since 1960 (left hand side) and contribution to overall GDP gr...
Friday, February 4, 2011

EconomPics of the (Since my Last EconomPics of the) Week

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Economic Data On the Job Non-Recovery ISM Services Growth at Fastest Pace in 5 1/2 Years... ISM Manufacturing Up for 20th Straight Month The...
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On the Job Non-Recovery

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The disappointing jobs data this morning, perhaps due to weather, detailed by Bloomberg : The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell in January...
Thursday, February 3, 2011

ISM Services Growth at Fastest Pace in 5 1/2 Years

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ecPulse details: The Institute for Supply Management released today the ISM services index, where the ISM Services index rose in January to...
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Productivity Continues Hot Streak

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Bloomberg details (bold mine): The productivity of U.S. workers unexpectedly increased in the fourth quarter at a faster rate as companies ...
4 comments:

European Retail Sales Decline

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Reuters details: Euro zone retail sales unexpectedly fell in December with equal declines in food and non-food sectors, a sign that consume...
Wednesday, February 2, 2011

The Importance of Small Business

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It's where the growth is... Source: ADP
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Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Auto's Continue Rebound

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Source: Autoblog

ISM Manufacturing Up for 20th Straight Month

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Marketwatch details: Conditions for the nation's manufacturers improved for the 20th straight month, the Institute for Supply Managemen...
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Monday, January 31, 2011

Odd Month

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Justification for the below? Risk on / reflation in the developed world (continued dollar sell-off) Brakes thrown on in emerging market worl...
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Chicago PMI Points to Heating Economy / Input Prices

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Bloomberg detailed: Businesses in the U.S. expanded in January at the fastest pace since July 1988, indicating the world’s largest economy ...
Friday, January 28, 2011

GDP Growth at 3.2% in Q4

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Pretty wild release. HUGE positive impact (more than 3%) by improvement in net exports. HUGE positive impact (more than 3%) by consumption ...
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

The Bulldog Bubble

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Random? Yes, but I like dogs... The American Kennel Club (hat tip Skip) details: This year’s list included some shakeups in the top 10 – th...
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Taking a Look at the Cash Hoarders

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The Huffington Post details the top 11 cash hoarders. Instead of building plants or hiring workers, corporate America is clinging to its c...
Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Dividend vs. Buyback Yield... The Importance of Timing

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Professor Damodaran (via World Beta and Abnormal Returns ): S&P's most recent update indicates that US companies, after a pause fo...

Consumer Confidence Improves in January

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Marktetwatch details: An index of U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 60.6 in January, reaching the highest level since May, with more consu...

Case Shiller Index Points to Housing Double Dip

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Source: S&P
Monday, January 24, 2011

Europe's Industrial Rebound: The Power of Mean Revision

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RTT News details: Eurozone industrial new order growth quickened in November, led by Portugal, Finland and Germany, official figures showed...
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