EconomPic
Friday, December 31, 2010

Happy 2011!

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A repost from New Years 2009 , tweaked (I'm feeling lazy) for the most recent year that was. As 2008 2010 comes to an end, it is hope...
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Thursday, December 30, 2010

Chicago Outlook: Biggest Jump in 22 Years

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Marketwatch details the spectacular report coming out of Chicago: A barometer of manufacturing conditions in the Chicago region jumped in D...
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Are Earnings Stretched?

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The chart below shows the long-term relationship between S&P earnings + dividends and nominal GDP growth. The dotted lines represent the...
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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Relationship of the Day

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I can't take credit for this (saw it in the background on CNBC), but thought the relationship was interesting (it goes back to at least ...
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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Housing: Another Leg Down

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Biz Journals with the bearish view: One of the nation’s leading real estate indexes showed home prices are on the decline across the countr...
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Thursday, December 23, 2010

The Story of Income and Outlays

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Let me walk through the below chart, which I think tells a very broad story of where we were, what happened during the crisis, and how we ar...
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Monday, December 20, 2010

National Savings Rate Negative

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The chart below shows the national savings rate (net savings of individuals, corporations, and the government). What we see is that for the ...
6 comments:
Saturday, December 18, 2010

If I Were Invited to the Bespoke Roundtable

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Bespoke just released their recent roundtable predictions for 2011. Before jumping into everyone's projections and my guesses for the n...
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Friday, December 17, 2010

EconomPics of the (Past Two) Week(s)

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Economic Data Inflation Capacity and Inflation Disinflation Remains Jobs Tax Cuts and the Impact (i.e. Cost) per Job Where's that Job Re...

Leading Indicators Strong in November

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Source: Conference Board

Personal Income Rebound is Widespread

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The chart below shows the year over year change in personal income across regions. In my opinion, the key is not to analyze which regions ha...
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Thursday, December 16, 2010

New Home "Pipeline" Lowest Since 1961

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Marketwatch reports: Construction of new U.S. homes rose 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 555,000 in November, the Commerce...
Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Capacity and Inflation

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My view yesterday of inflation. My view? Unless we see a pickup in employment (we may), all the stimulus (fiscal and monetary) will just fe...
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Disinflation Remains

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The WSJ details: So-called core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, inched ahead...
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

When Will the Fed Hike?

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The chart below shows market forecasts for short-term rates (3 month LIBOR ) over the next three years based on EuroDollar futures contrac...

Nominal Matters: Retail Edition

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Are there signs of life in the economy? Absolutely! But was this the "monster surprise" to the upside bounce in retail consumption...

PPI Jumps... Is Core Inflation in our Future?

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Sorry for the lack of posts... my life has been a whirlwind; kind of like the latest producer price index release (how's THAT for a tran...
Thursday, December 9, 2010

More on Consumer Credit

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Karl Denninger details why the jump in non-revolving consumer credit was not necessarily all it was made out to be (hat tip Jim Driscoll )...
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The High Yield One Way Ride...

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Barron's details: Since the end of August, the i Shares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (TLT), which tracks the lo...

Tax Cuts and the Impact (i.e. Cost) per Job

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American Progress details: Our analysis of the framework tax agreement that President Barack Obama announced yesterday, including addition...

Inventory Build? Nope...

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Bloomberg with some faulty analysis: Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose more than twice as much as forecast in October as companies stock...
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Tuesday, December 7, 2010

The Consumer Credit Split

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Bloomberg details: Consumer borrowing in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in October for a second straight month, led by an increase in non-revol...
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Companies Increasingly Looking to Hire

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Source: BLS
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Global Rebound Taking Form

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Investment Postcards via The Big Picture shows that the United States is in fact not trailing the rest of the world (at least in November)...

Reach for Yield... Muni Edition

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Bloomberg details: An extension of the U.S. Build America Bond program was left out of a compromise that President Barack Obama struck with...
Monday, December 6, 2010

Game Day!

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Although the J-E-T-S are underdogs in Foxboro this evening (I see a 3.5 point line) and without Jim Leonard (the Jets secondary defensive p...
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Housing and Inflation

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Bill Ackman (via Paul at Infectious Greed and pulled from a Beracha and Johnson white paper ) shows the following chart comparing the rat...
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Sunday, December 5, 2010

Eventually, Labor Will Be Needed to Meet Output

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As everyone is familiar with, the productivity spike following the economic downturn was initially met with a HUGE drop in hours worked and ...

Where's that Job Recovery?

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Two weeks of catching up to do... I'll start with the employment report from Friday and will likely just move forward from here (not eve...
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Saturday, November 20, 2010

EconomPics of the (Back in a Few) Week

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Taking a breather... posts to resume in a few weeks. GDP Rocky Mountain High Japanese Economy Grows... Nominal GDP Back to 1993 Levels Econo...
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Thursday, November 18, 2010

It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

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Solid news out of Flip-Flip-Flipadelpia . Forex Pros details: Manufacturing activity in Philadelphia increased significantly more-than-expe...
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Leading Indicators Rise in October

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Marketwatch details: A “mild pickup” may be in store for the U.S. economy this spring following a post-holiday lull, the Conference Board s...

Rocky Mountain High

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Source: BEA
Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Core CPI at All-Time Series Low

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FT Alphaville reports: Over the last twelve months, core CPI climbed 0.6 per cent, or “the smallest 12-month increase in the history of the...

The Impact of QEII

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On September 21st, the FOMC signalled a new round of quantitative easing with the following: The Committee will continue to monitor the eco...

New Home Starts Dive in October

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CNN Money details: New home construction fell to an 18-month low in October, the government said Wednesday. Housing starts, or the number o...

CPI Tame in October

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Marketwatch details: U.S. consumer inflation decelerated in October, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The consumer price index increase...
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Monday, November 15, 2010

New York Business Conditions "Deteriorate" in November

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Marketwatch details: Business conditions in the New York area deteriorated in November, as the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturin...
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Consumer Continues to Spend

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Marketwatch details: U.S. retail sales rose for the fourth straight month, climbing 1.2% in October, as consumers flocked to auto showrooms...
1 comment:
Sunday, November 14, 2010

Japanese Economy Grows... Nominal GDP Back to 1993 Levels

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Bloomberg reports: Japan’s economy grew more than forecast in the third quarter as consumer spending increased, shielding the expansion fro...
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Friday, November 12, 2010

EconomPics of the Week 11-12-10

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Crazy f'n week in no particular order... European Economic Rebound Slows Is it a Bubble if a Reversal is Already Priced int... Growth in...

European Economic Rebound Slows

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Nasdaq details: The European Union grew by 0.4% over the 3rd quarter, declining from the 1.0% growth rate posted last quarter. The GDP figu...
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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Is it a Bubble if a Reversal is Already Priced into the Market?

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Below is a chart of the 10 year Treasury yield and what the market is pricing in for the 10 year yield, ten years forward (along with the fi...
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Growth in Treasury Budget Deficit Slows

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Still catching up on yesterdays... the below shows the latest Treasury budget in nominal and relative (to GDP) terms... improving in second ...
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