tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post8270311690430307920..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Out With the Outgoing Overly Optimistic View on the EconomyJakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-32233651252904052009-01-21T13:33:00.000-08:002009-01-21T13:33:00.000-08:00Jake, thanks for graphing up the numbers in that t...Jake, thanks for graphing up the numbers in that table and especially for including the 10-year average in each chart. (A question I'm always asking is, "Compared to what?") Those numbers looked way rosy to me also -- odd that someone is still putting out projections of this as a "V"-shaped event. Looks like the numbers could've come from models based on typical business-cycle recessions induced by the Fed raising rates.<BR/><BR/>I thought the charts in this post were enlightening.<BR/><BR/>http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/20/51401/public-thrift-private-profligacy/<BR/><BR/>I think combining the debt situation (would like to see consumer broken out of all private-sector) plus the massive destruction of household wealth shown in the chart that made me gulp, indicates pretty clearly that consumer spending is unlikely to bounce back very smartly.<BR/><BR/>I'm no economist or finance pro but I was living in Tokyo mid 80s to mid 90s. Things are looking all too familiar.<BR/><BR/>Cheers<BR/>AlanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-79176658965196265102009-01-20T12:38:00.000-08:002009-01-20T12:38:00.000-08:00John- quite the opposite actually. These are GBII ...John- quite the opposite actually. These are GBII forecasts... or are you saying they adjusted their figures based on the understanding that the savior was coming?Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-40770608383636906462009-01-20T10:44:00.000-08:002009-01-20T10:44:00.000-08:00Any doubts about the optimistic forecasts display ...Any doubts about the optimistic forecasts display a terrible lack of faith in our newly-inaugurated savior.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00933634558512209999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-22071260167407172622009-01-20T06:55:00.000-08:002009-01-20T06:55:00.000-08:00Thank you for this realistic look at the huge ills...Thank you for this realistic look at the huge ills facing our economy and stripping the economic policy community and financial industry of the misrepresentations it continues to make. <BR/><BR/>These "leaders" (now even Obama in the Romer report) seem to believe the iconic court martial line from Jack Nicholson, "The truth? You can't handle the truth!"<BR/><BR/>Actually, I can handle the truth. What I'm getting sick of handling is the tightly spun misrepresentations of our leaders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com