tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post6640810447953848041..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Where are Long Bond Yields Going?Jakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-8836650996859731992009-11-11T08:57:59.024-08:002009-11-11T08:57:59.024-08:00You just underlined the reason why Robertson is bu...You just underlined the reason why Robertson is buying curve caps, Einhorn is shorting long bonds and Pellegrini says T-Bond short is the next big play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-75655594538950169512009-11-11T05:46:37.902-08:002009-11-11T05:46:37.902-08:00Having a tough time digging data out that goes bac...Having a tough time digging data out that goes back further than the mid-80's, but if I can find it I will post it...Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-14613610044525500802009-11-11T03:30:28.976-08:002009-11-11T03:30:28.976-08:00"But the money shot is that when the yield cu..."But the money shot is that when the yield curve has been VERY steep (i.e. more than 4%) the Long Bond has rallied in all cases (19 out of 19 times) over the next year."<br /><br />This is a great observation! One caveat though: the data is taken during a period of time where the 30-year bond yield DECLINED consistently. This observation would be more reliable if it includes 1960-1980 where the 30-year bond yield ROSE.<br /><br />If we're experiencing a regime change today, then the relationship likely won't hold.Henry Beehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12176365362835822750noreply@blogger.com