tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post1472733894609720407..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: The Irish Dr. Doom... or Just an Exaggerating Economist?Jakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-28933791432974834252009-03-23T20:03:00.000-07:002009-03-23T20:03:00.000-07:00I have great respect for Mr Kelly. He is educated ...I have great respect for Mr Kelly. He is educated and knows what he is talking about. He will not get any thanks from some people in this country, because it sounds to much like honesty. I just wish everyone in this country was as honest. Thank you Mr Kelly. When are we actualy going to see reductions in house prices because all I see is the same old auctioneers with the same property, year after year and they have not changed their prices in any way. They are still hundreds of thousands over priced. The Government and the banks are trying to get poor first time buyers to enter the property market at the minute with this new advertising campaign, offering all sorts of nonsence to lure them like lambs to the slaughter, to tie themselves down to a monster of a mortgage for a house that is roughly €200,000 to €300,000 overvalued. I hope they see through what is happening and waight for another ten years before they decide to buy, poor things.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-61587311610066653972009-01-15T02:41:00.000-08:002009-01-15T02:41:00.000-08:00maybe he also expects a very high inflation, so if...maybe he also expects a very high inflation, so if inflation is 10%, real prices arent that low...<BR/><BR/>And don´t forget, after an overshooting comes an undershooting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-61951231285019753782009-01-14T15:20:00.000-08:002009-01-14T15:20:00.000-08:00Anonymous-"An example of a 50% real fall over a pe...Anonymous-<BR/><BR/>"An example of a 50% real fall over a period of time with 20% inflation is a fall from 100K to 60K."<BR/><BR/>I understand how to compare going forward (as you detail above), but comparing the fall to historical "real" prices is done in the manner I describe, no?Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-55784921344451362182009-01-14T09:49:00.000-08:002009-01-14T09:49:00.000-08:00Disinflation is leading to deflation in Ireland at...Disinflation is leading to deflation in Ireland at the moment. Although camps are split on where inflation is heading mid to long term, if deflation was to get a hold then a real fall would be "more" than a nominal fall.<BR/><BR/>In any event, Kelly's predictions are based on empirical studies of app 40 previous crashes around the world. Given the worsening global situation (Ireland was always already facing disaster) he is revising his predictions to the downside. He is used to being derided; he is also used to being right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-6832614355155542392009-01-14T09:32:00.000-08:002009-01-14T09:32:00.000-08:00I think you have real and nominal falls confused. ...I think you have real and nominal falls confused. The real fall is inflation adjusted. Nominal fall doesn't include adjustment for inflation. So an example of a 50% nominal fall is to fall from 100K to 50K. An example of a 50% real fall over a period of time with 20% inflation is a fall from 100K to 60K.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com