tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post6791334630302903071..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Treasuries: Bubble or Accurate Reflection of Slow Growth?Jakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-65487339943284710922010-08-24T20:40:06.363-07:002010-08-24T20:40:06.363-07:00Jake,
I understand your position that the number ...Jake,<br /><br />I understand your position that the number of recessions is relevant to the average growth rate over a period of time -- I do. But what might be more relevant is the average growth rate between recessions. By using different length filters, one might be able to tease out the between-recession growth rate from the within-recession growth rate.Kostahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07075138548460831841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-24639594326690922442010-08-23T20:14:18.487-07:002010-08-23T20:14:18.487-07:00i get your point regarding using different time pe...i get your point regarding using different time periods to see the results, but i don't see why we'd want to back out recessionary figures. these figures are what they are over that time.Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-86181279932017395112010-08-23T09:13:16.698-07:002010-08-23T09:13:16.698-07:00Jake,
I love the graphs. I particularly like how...Jake,<br /><br />I love the graphs. I particularly like how they show the period of the late 1960s as an era of supernormal growth, and I wonder if it would ever be possible (or desireable) to replicate that record.<br /><br />You note that 10 year annualized real GDP growth has dipped to 1.62%, the lowest on record for over 50 years. I'm a little concerned becaue I think the 1.62% number is, in part, an artifact of your measurement methodology. It just so happens that the previous 10 years just encompass 2 recessions entirely, so that the measurement process includes the subnormal years of 2001-2004 and 2008-2010. You see a similar dip in 1983, with the previous 10 years encompassing the recessions.<br /><br />Would the results differ if you considered different time windows (5 year, 7 year, 15 year, 20 year)? The comparison to a Treasury note of bond may not be quite as natural, but it might give you a better idea of the robustness of your growth measure.Kostahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07075138548460831841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-58369242889251707082010-08-20T23:14:32.417-07:002010-08-20T23:14:32.417-07:00Jake,
The old classical theory on natural interes...Jake,<br /><br />The old classical theory on natural interest rates vs. GDP has fallen out of favor -- in general nominal GDP growth and 5-10-year Treasury yields track each other.<br /><br />As an aside, that is a reason to worry about GDP growth. :(<br /><br />DavidDavid Merkelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05073877918072914309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-87065984751103241762010-08-20T14:04:55.707-07:002010-08-20T14:04:55.707-07:00Great graphs; will have to digest those for a bit....Great graphs; will have to digest those for a bit.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-18968623470517797152010-08-20T11:06:49.476-07:002010-08-20T11:06:49.476-07:00I suspect both nominal GDP growth and treasury yie...I suspect both nominal GDP growth and treasury yields are mostly driven by inflation, since both real yields and real GDP growth vary less than inflation did.<br /><br />Which means all this graph is telling you is that inflation plus some noise is correlated with inflation plus some different noise :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com