tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post6342085728640355162..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Just One Super-Secular Mean Reversion?Jakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-48487459170014272802009-11-13T13:35:37.954-08:002009-11-13T13:35:37.954-08:00Most people take the 80s for "normal" co...Most people take the 80s for "normal" concerning interest rates.Now is "extreme". It's the other way around.<br /><br />I wonder what really was going on in the 70s.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-23177607883946462322009-11-13T08:21:34.807-08:002009-11-13T08:21:34.807-08:00Jake,
I keep pointing out to people that long rat...Jake,<br /><br />I keep pointing out to people that long rates may be low by recent historical measures, but long rates are by no means low by long term historical measures. <br /><br />We suffer from a recency bias. <br /><br />I just don't see high interest rates going forward. Our high debt levels won't allow it. A weaker dollar - very possible. Higher interest rates - the system can't handle it. <br /><br />I was hoping a long dated treasury sell off (up to 4% yield on the 10 yr) would accompany rising gold, oil and equities. I'm starting to have doubts it will happen though.mabnoreply@blogger.com