tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post5644706065611334661..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Asset Class Returns "Normalizing"?Jakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-6464754936887559212009-04-28T06:42:00.000-07:002009-04-28T06:42:00.000-07:00agreed (and why i'll probably miss the first true ...agreed (and why i'll probably miss the first true bounce if i haven't already), but i do believe the market is not pricing in the 5-10% chance of absolute depression-like turmoil. <br /><br />the simplified way i think about it... if a stock is priced at more than 1 cent, it can still lose 100% of its value if it goes bankrupt.Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-11154451879969903742009-04-28T06:29:00.000-07:002009-04-28T06:29:00.000-07:00Hi Jake,
“U.S. economy is still shedding millions...Hi Jake,<br /><br />“U.S. economy is still shedding millions of jobs, has a broke / indebted consumer AND government,”<br /><br />The market already knows that jobs will be shed and the government is taking on debt. Markets would hit new lows if the U.S. economy is heading into a hole that is deeper than consensus expectations, which in turn will drive up default rates more than expected, result in IMF-sized writedowns, and government deficits that break the CBO’s projections by miles.<br /><br />As always, nice charts.<br /><br />RebeccaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com