tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post2072850246661527801..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Birth / Death Model Has Added 800,000 JobsJakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-85159131720047865222009-07-02T15:16:36.852-07:002009-07-02T15:16:36.852-07:00The Center for Labour Market Studies at Northeaste...The Center for Labour Market Studies at Northeastern University estimates that the real unemployment now stands at 18.2%, which is actually higher than the posted rate at the end of the 1930s.<br /><br />David Rosenberg writes in his latest piece, Wage Deflation in Our MidstVKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-60316069091612907592009-07-02T10:37:59.009-07:002009-07-02T10:37:59.009-07:00At what point does an error in the algorithm turn ...At what point does an error in the algorithm turn into outright fraud? This is getting out of hand and prevents the public from having a better underdtanding of how poor the jobs picture actually is.Zachary Abramshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04436845339456920198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-21876057071514945022009-07-02T09:37:45.524-07:002009-07-02T09:37:45.524-07:00The B/D model is a scam for EXACTLY the reason you...The B/D model is a scam for EXACTLY the reason you write: "wildly overstates strength at the end of a cycle" Mauldin has written (in agreement) about this in some detail as well.<br /><br />Thx for illuminating your readers.samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-80552348755698811902009-07-02T06:50:01.854-07:002009-07-02T06:50:01.854-07:00It looks like Mish already dug into the detail:
h...It looks like Mish already dug into the detail:<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/create.phpJakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-41492359624942727172009-07-02T06:48:22.605-07:002009-07-02T06:48:22.605-07:00My guesses (need to do some more research, but let...My guesses (need to do some more research, but let me know if you find anything).<br /><br />1) the decline in jobs has been extraordinary (doesn't have a mechanism built to take that into account)<br />2) it is only adjusts once per yearJakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-21589738086968509912009-07-02T06:20:13.375-07:002009-07-02T06:20:13.375-07:00My understanding is this was only supposed to give...My understanding is this was only supposed to give overly rosy data at the turning point...we are long past the turning point into recession, why is this model still so faulty?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04490179400711329488noreply@blogger.com