tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post203828566239094070..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: Is it a Bubble if a Reversal is Already Priced into the Market?Jakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-48517655653877531652010-11-11T17:20:04.382-08:002010-11-11T17:20:04.382-08:00GMO link here (free subscription may be required):...GMO link here (free subscription may be required):<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/39s3fzyJakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-56844818290901829202010-11-11T16:22:26.463-08:002010-11-11T16:22:26.463-08:00I read a thought-provoking piece on asset class va...I read a thought-provoking piece on asset class valuation at the GMO Website. It's called Back to Basics, by Ben Inker, published 11/8.John Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10449844868098492351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-41251108676350645182010-11-11T16:04:32.620-08:002010-11-11T16:04:32.620-08:00Love this post Jake, very mind bending.
Great com...Love this post Jake, very mind bending.<br /><br />Great comments Namazu!EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-3642460101756180012010-11-11T16:04:14.153-08:002010-11-11T16:04:14.153-08:00so basically everything else... fair enoughso basically everything else... fair enoughJakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-3786651386542232942010-11-11T16:01:13.838-08:002010-11-11T16:01:13.838-08:00For a 10 year holding period, I prefer gold, silve...For a 10 year holding period, I prefer gold, silver, large-cap US equities, small-cap Japan, Asia ex-Japan, ex-China, Mexico, global energy stocks, and probably some others. For the next 5 years, I mostly like cash for its optionality, physical gold using GLD as a hedge, and for income some MLPs, a handful of large-cap high dividend growers on dips, distressed credit (via mutual funds), and short-duration Ginnie Maes. And whatever opportunities arise along the way.John Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10449844868098492351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-81219142022666483372010-11-11T14:48:50.597-08:002010-11-11T14:48:50.597-08:00curious as to what you currently see as a better v...curious as to what you currently see as a better value?Jakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-41462653358702165332010-11-11T14:21:52.773-08:002010-11-11T14:21:52.773-08:00Good question! A partial answer might be that the...Good question! A partial answer might be that the forward yield prices in uncertainty rather than just an expected value. The Cleveland Fed has a couple of research pieces along these lines regarding TIPS spreads:<br /><br />http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-5.cfm?WT.oss=inflation%20expectations&WT.oss_r=2670<br /><br />Note that while I think 10-year Treasuries are a terrible value, I do not see any classic characteristics of a bubble.John Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10449844868098492351noreply@blogger.com