tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post1654319581829082974..comments2024-02-18T21:10:05.205-08:00Comments on EconomPic: On the Change in Q3 GDPJakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-91537084766639916852009-12-31T08:49:33.290-08:002009-12-31T08:49:33.290-08:00Jake--I took a look at the linked paper although i...Jake--I took a look at the linked paper although it was tough sledding. It is reasonably complete, but focuses on averages--not variability--which is where I think the issue is now. Needless to say, on average, BEA did very well in assessing GDP over time, according to BEA. <br /><br />The real question is whether their readings were average, better, or worse at critical economic turning points (like the present economic crisis) and the extent to which their results at these times reflect political as well as economic considerations. My guess is that the recent major changes in GDP growth valuations are at the extreme and that the initial "preliminary" evaluations reflected more than just economic measurements. <br /><br />Maybe I'll go back and look at the data, but that will be a long slog.Lilguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-49680040052004794552009-12-30T07:33:33.667-08:002009-12-30T07:33:33.667-08:00I thought Eric Sprott's comments yesterday on ...I thought Eric Sprott's comments yesterday on the stock market and gold were pretty interesting: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2009-12-29/sprott-says-s-p-500-to-tumble-below-its-march-low-update2-.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessweek.com/news/2009-12-29/sprott-says-s-p-500-to-tumble-below-its-march-low-update2-.html</a><br /><br />and there's also a bunch of good stories on his firm's site on gold as well: <a href="http://www.sprott.com/PreciousMetals.aspx?id=53" rel="nofollow">http://www.sprott.com/PreciousMetals.aspx?id=53</a>Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13775653942561818932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-77591736440041770592009-12-29T15:27:07.456-08:002009-12-29T15:27:07.456-08:00here's a paper on the reliability of GDP (thou...here's a paper on the reliability of GDP (though it is produced by the BEA):<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/ycusatsJakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946497592651234440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11027528911364475.post-88569145141301397832009-12-29T14:36:42.434-08:002009-12-29T14:36:42.434-08:00I am struck by the magnitude of the total change i...I am struck by the magnitude of the total change in these revisions over two months. And I'm increasingly (a) more skeptical about USG economic statistical methodologies and (b) more doubtful about the legitimacy with which they are applied (i.e.--data spinning).<br /><br />I would really like to know in a statistical sense how extreme these revisions were. My guess is that they were at least two standard deviations from the norm since WWII.<br /><br />If you have the time to show graphically how much these revisions have ebbed & flowed over time, that would be very useful. My guess is that aberrations are greater in periods of extreme economic flux (peaks & valleys of cycles) and that they may well have been worse than normal the last two years for non-economic reasons.Lilguynoreply@blogger.com